Public opinion on the Israel-Hamas conflict is deeply divided and emotionally charged. Many express skepticism and frustration over the potential for lasting peace, with strong voices advocating for a permanent ceasefire and humanitarian intervention. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is a significant concern, with calls for both justice and accountability. There is also substantial empathy for civilians on both sides and criticism of bias in media representation. Discussions reflect historical grievances and emphasize the complex geopolitical and religious dynamics involved. Overall, there is a pervasive sense of urgency, with demands for dialogue, recognition of rights, and a realistic approach to peacekeeping.

Israel

Hamas

Palestinian Authority

Palestinian civilians

Israeli government

It seems unlikely that Israel is mobilizing 300k soldiers to have them just stand at the border.

_A_Monkey

Israel will invade Gaza and it will be bloody. They won’t leave until the UN commits to a permanent peacekeeping mission or a collection of Middle Eastern countries step in and provide a peacekeeping force. But first, a big long war.

MagisAMDG

Some people fear that the Israel–Hamas war will escalate into a "world war", or at least a conflict that covers enough of the globe to count as one by modern standards. But given the current state of play, it seems unlikely that the conflict will escalate that far. The conflict is still primarily localised between Israel and militant groups in Gaza/Palestine. Other countries are urging de-escalation rather than becoming directly involved militarily. Major global powers like the US, Russia, China, and Europe have no apparent appetite for being dragged into a major war over the conflict; they'll likely try to contain it rather than escalate. Even potential regional escalation (e.g. Iran/Hezbollah) appears limited since those parties also want to avoid outright war with Israel/the US. Broader Muslim countries are voicing solidarity with Palestinians but not mobilising militarily. The UN and other bodies are pushing for ceasefire and restraint, making worldwide escalation diplomatically difficult. And finally, Israel and Hamas appear to be pursuing limited objectives rather than a major conflagration.

I don't *actually* know how it will develop. Nobody does. But in the interest of thinking about all the potential ways this conflict could unfold, with the very large caveat that the initial attack by Hamas occurred just four days ago, these are ones I can think of, **regardless of their likelihood**:

* A ceasefire agreement. Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the US. This would restore a tense and bleak status quo, with tentative commitments to avoid future escalation. But the underlying issues would remain, once again, unresolved. This scenario seems unlikely, given the scale of violence that has been reached.
* A prisoner/hostage exchange. As part of a ceasefire deal, a swap would occur where Hamas releases Israeli hostages in exchange for Israel releasing Palestinian prisoners. This could de-escalate tensions in the short term. This scenario seems unlikely for the same reason as above.
* A limited Israeli ground invasion. If ceasefire talks fail, Israel might launch a ground offensive into Gaza to disrupt or remove Hamas's capabilities and potentially recover hostages. This would avoid full re-occupation.
* Hamas stands down. Hamas scales back rocket attacks and border activities due to taking on too many casualties. This could also potentially happen if Arab states pressure Hamas to stand down. This could allow a de-escalation without a formal ceasefire.
* A widened regional conflict. The conflict draws in more parties like Hezbollah or Iran, leading to a regional war. This seems less likely given the foreseeable risks for all parties but could happen if tensions spiral out of control.
* Political shakeup in Israel. The conflict leads to leadership change in Israel. The influence of the far-right parties might decrease and less hard-line policies could be pursued. Not only is this more of a mid-term consequence, but also I'm not an expert in Israeli politics. Having said that, the intelligence failure on the part of the Israeli government has been extensively covered in the media, both in Israel and internationally.
* International intervention. Increased diplomatic involvement by parties like the UN, the US, and Arab states leads to a ceasefire and renewal of Israeli-Palestinian peace process. This seems to be extremely unlikely but not impossible.
* The re-occupation of Gaza. Given the scale of both the brutality of recent news reports and the  Israeli military mobilisation already underway, this scenario seems to me the most likely out of all the ones I can think of. Israel could see it as the only way to fully dismantle Hamas and ensure security. Far-right coalition partners could pressure Netanyahu towards more maximalist military goals. Mounting public anger in Israel and a desire for vengeance could override all other decision-making. The conflict could spread to the West Bank.

Any prediction at this point about the eventual outcome of the Israel–Hamas war is speculative. There are many variables at play, and even unintentional or perceived actions of a single actor could change the trajectory of the conflict. But, if I had to guess, I'd say that the short-term outcome will be the re-occupation of Gaza by Israel. The record mobilisation of 300,000 reservists and deployment of heavy weaponry pretty clearly signals readiness for a substantial ground operation. Netanyahu faces immense pressure from the public and within his coalition to respond quickly and decisively to Hamas' aggression. The presence of Israeli hostages in Gaza makes a ground operation pretty much necessary if there is to be an attempt to recover them, given the complexity of Hamas’ tunnel networks. The absence of direct military intervention from other nations might provide a window for Israel to conduct a ground operation with limited immediate external military consequences. And finally, Israel could see reoccupation in the long-term as a way of influencing post-conflict reconstruction in Gaza and preventing the re-emergence of entities hostile to them.

itsbeachjustice

I'm gonna go out in a limb here; but I had this thought the moment the news broke out of the Hamas infiltration.
We are gonna see genocidal level violence in Gaza. 
I'm talking not a few thousand dead but several 10s of thousand dead maybe even in the six figure range.

Gaza is so small that the Israelis carpet bombing the place would be enough to completely flatten the place. They dont need to puts troops on the ground. And thats just the beginning. They can (and will) systemicatilly starve the entire population of food and water. And with no where to go...these people are literally gonna die by the 1000s. 
The only thing restraining Israel historically was international opinion. Thats never matter less important than it is today for one thing and for another has never been more pro-israeli before now either.

When thinking about the other powers at play.....Biden just gave Israel 100% support. European opinion is frankly irrelevent, plus wurope is busy in its own backyard. China and India don't care one way or the other. And Russia is busy with its one war plus won't really do anything more than lip service as long as its bases in Syria are fine.

Egypt does not support the Palestinians, Syria just recently came out of a civil war, Lebanon is a country tetthering on the brink of collapse. Saudis and the gulf states: again nothing more than lip service; all the really care about is business and money. 
Tldr: nothing stopping Israel from doing anyrhing thing at all.

Best_Location_8237

I don't think we've seen anyone actually follow the total war playbook in the modern era, not even in Ukraine until maybe recently.

With no food, water, or electricity, the urban environment becomes a long term liability, not a benefit. Could there be international pressure against such actions? Sure. Is there anyone else who wants to get involved militarily? I don't think so. I think it all comes down to how long Israel is willing to endure the pressure and how tight of a blockade can it actually manage. Even if there's secret tunnels, I don't think you can run logistics for 2 million people through them while fighting a guerilla war against an opponent with superior firepower.

I think relocation of the population to other Arab countries and annexation of the land is the most likely outcome.

Dangime

I don't understand this notion that Russia and China will somehow catch America &amp; its Allies off guard. Russia is currently bogged down in Ukraine, I don't see how they would be able to afford to open up another front. China, at this moment, doesn't have the capability or desire to launch an all out invasion of Taiwan. The US still has a massive presence in the Pacific, not to mention their partners in the region. 

Call it wishful thinking but I don't even see this war turning into an Iran-US hot war. Middle Eastern countries are very irrational, but not suicidal

throwawayforaskleo

Also a possible revolt in Jerusalem along with the West Bank.

Prolekult-Hauntolog

True siege warfare looks like a real possibility.  Something on the scale of Petrograd in WWII.  There are countless times this worked when used by ancient Rome,but, in this case, it would be softened somewhat.  Historically, this has been the most successful tactic in dealing with assymetrical warfare in the Middle East. I think the Israelis are seriously contemplating surrounding Gaza with their military.  That would require the building of trenches and guard towers and then cutting all food and water to the people.  The siege could end on conditions:  (1) the people of Gaza give up all leaders of Hamas, a list of which Israel would provide; and (2) the emigration and safe passage out of Gaza for Palestinians.  The Israeli government could even pay for the emigration via stipend.  Bombing would continue until enough have either starved or emigrated that the army could move in and raze the area.  Again, this tactic has worked and there is no country that holds enough leverage over Israel to stop it.  It would be done in 6 months or so if the noose is tight enough.

Ed.  Other Arab countries don't want the Palestinians but Israel would simply dump them in the Sinai otherwise and let them find a way to Egypt and eventually other North African countries. Also, I don't think they will let them emigrate to countries bordering Israel as that would pose a security problem.  Most Jews in Israel, or at least a good portion, were Arab Jews forced out of their North African communities after independence.  There is long precedent for this.

Variation_Wooden

&gt; high IDF casualties in urban warfare 

That’s assuming the conventional IDF battles in the middle of Gaza City though.  Partitioning could also be used with more specialized urban forces going in afterwards.   There’s also feints, have one force approach Gaza City and then stop, reverse .. while another starts approaches elsewhere.  Do it around the clock to exhaust an adversary while your own sleep in shifts. 

That’s also assuming an attack is imminent .. which it might be or the Israeli forces could wait.  They could even have NGOs supply water bottles daily to those approaching unarmed, as water is heavy per unit (people will be more tired and unmotivated, especially on restricted calories).  There also is a sanitation problem looming. 

There’s also a possible plan to get unarmed civilians out into Egypt somewhere (Sinai?) .. let’s say women and children via Muslim policewomen and then unarmed men get screened elsewhere, especially if fighting age.  Give them all a right to return to Gaza of course.

IronyElSupremo

That is why IDF is currently sticking to aerial attacks and bombardment, There is a massive buildup of armies alongside the border and more along the way, they also have missiles not just rockets, I do not think you clearly understand Israel's capabilities in a full scale war.

One possibility is that maybe palestinians turn on Hamas and disclose their hideouts and supply chains via a third party like egypt or direct negotiation, I mean libyans shot gaddafi when it got too much.

Aggravating_Boy3873

Biden just sent USS Gerald Ford to the doorstep of Lebanon and told Hezbollah to not get any ideas

manatidederp

Sometimes you just need to do anything and everything to do whatever is necessary to end the conflict based on the circumstances, no more, no less, instead of prolonging it and having to put up decades of agitation. Just like the Allies acted in WW2.

Linny911

Personally, I think it's game over for Palestine, Israel now has a justification/casus belli to invade all what's left of Palestine. It will be a bloodshed...

[deleted]

Alberto_the_Bear

Israel doesn't really have a lot of choices at the moment except a ground invasion. The Hamas terrorist attack was far too brutal and deadly for the Israelis to just fire missiles and return to the status quo like usual.

gtafan37890

It’ll be the worst most large scale committing of war crimes of the 21st century. I don’t think Gaza or its people are making it out of this to any meaningful degree.

anarchist_person1

The long term prospects for Gaza are the complete occupation, administration, evacuation and assimilation by Israel.

Gaza, as the world currently knows it, simply doesn't work and so shall be eradicated.

RudeRepair5616

Fox News is on the ground and they’re reporting a ground invasion into Gaza is not a matter of IF, but WHEN

iambeautifulz

Whatever happens the outcome is horrible. I can’t imagine what Hamas was thinking would happen beside a miserable future. It’s just sad for everyone.

EnnSenior

&gt;The wellbeing of the over 100 hostages currently in Gaza

Hamas drastically undercut the value of these hostages via their foolish strategy of opening the war via indiscriminate mass murder; they've basically told the Israelis: "these people are already dead, so we can't allow them to influence our future strategy."

&amp;#x200B;

&gt;Overall the most likely scenario is a limited conflict in Gaza accompanied by some limited clashes in the north and an eventual cease-fire agreement

I don't see "limited" anywhere on the menu.

ToLiveAndDieInICT

Israel is going to flatten Gaza before going in.  It won’t be urban combat e cause there won’t be any structures left.   They’ll do it slowly from north , working south in order to squeeze the civilians out to Egypt.  They blew holes in the border wall to the south to open the doors for refugees.

911MDACk

So your saying there a chance WW3 will start because some psychos want to kill jews

I really wish the two nickel meme doesn't became a reality in this scenario

abellapa

protests in North America and Europe. The more Palestinian deaths the higher chance it turns into full scale riots. US will offer intelligence but no boots or air support- Israeli air and boots on the ground only. Iran will be involved but China/Russia don’t have to do anything, they just sit back and benefit with further relations with Muslim countries.

hansulu3

So Israel allowed Hamas to enter Israel just like that. Seriously ???  And even harder to believe Hamas commits atrocities against innocent people when it knows damn well what the Israeli response will be ??? Seriously ? Are Hamas that mentally unbalanced ? Sorry but I have to suspend my level of belief on this one.

jamesmichaelginn

Parson1616

What’s going on is sickening and that’s to put it lightly. Seeing those dead babies hurts the soul

gumbel718

Dear Israel 🇮🇱 and People of the West 🇺🇸. Please take note, a lot antisemitism nonsense is written by China's netizens, trending, and not censored by CCP's tightly controlled internet: 

*_All the Jews should be exterminated._*

*_Jews are parasites_*.

And much more hateful comments.
For your information.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=_RgjmcPbH5ke

There is a solution - 1 state with equal rights for all. The challenge to this is the insistence on maintaining the ethnostate of Israel which has to implement policies of demographic control to artificially maintain an artificial jewish majority.

  
By the way the only secular historic name of this land that doesn't apply to any particular religion or tribe is...Palestine.

rantingpanther

It will be controlled by Muslims again and all religions will be allowed to have access to the holy land. Return all the Palestinian refugees to their homes even in Today's Israel and send back the settlers to where they originated. The Jewish families that were always there before 1948 should remain.

People keep forgetting that Jews were protected under the Islamic rule, in the whole of the middle east and also in south of Europe. The crusaders and Europeans that have been slaughtering them and decided to kick them and create Israel for them. If you occupy the land that doesn't belong to you, you are basically asking to be killed and chased out as you long you remain on their land. 

It chould've been easier for the Zionists if Palestine was an Island but unfortunately for they are surrounded by Palestine's brothers and sisters who will help them to gain their right's back. And even those countries stopped the 2 billion Muslims won't.

Common_Drama_9937

BigCharlie16

I think one day the only realistic solution is some kind of federation plan israel had a chance to return the wb or parts of it to jordan in 1988 but the right wing government at the time refused I think a federation plan once israel chooses to stop the apartheid and using be PA like the bandstand government there will be peace. 

Also stop funding islamists like israel did with Hamas then I think once there will be a peace on federation plan with an agreement on jerusalem and the the palestinian side being demilitarized.

Expensive_Listen8541

I agree completely. This statement made on News nation after 10/7/23. Well stated answer to this issue.

Foreign-Olive2255

70 years? That soon? You sound rather optimistic

Threefreedoms67

&gt; Why should we stress on something that cannot be solved ?

Of course it can be solved. Israel just wants land more than it wants to solve the conflict.

redthrowaway1976

There are many conflicts that have been “resolved” after a century or two where the outcome was very definitely suboptimal and not able in hindsight to be remedied.

Look at how we here in the U.S. resolved our conflicts with the Native population of North America.   Millions were killed, and no, that wasn’t all just due to disease. In the meantime the survivors were herded onto reservations and are only now, very belatedly, emerging from more than a century of systematic social and economic immiseration.   None of those who died unnecessarily are going to rise again, nor are the remaining Native Americans going to regain any of the vast territories they lost.

One could say the same thing about the Armenians the century ago, who similarly were killed by the millions and lost lands they will never recover.

I foresee something similar for the 5 million Palestinians inhabiting the Occupied Territories.   At present the PA controls about 10% of the West Bank, which itself constitutes 23% of the total area of historical Palestine.   The remaining 60% of the West Bank (aka Area C) is being actively settled by Israel despite the protests of virtually every other country around the globe, including Israel’s chief military benefactor the U.S.

The way things are going a century from now Area C will contain literally hundreds of thousands if not millions of Israelis, often multigenerational residents at that point.   Moderate-minded Israelis can claim what they want, nothing will convince me that Israel will give up any parts of Area C at that point to create an economically viable Palestinian state, regardless of how well behaved or reasonable the Palestinians may have at that point become. The multiple discontiguous fragments of territory that the PA currently controls will be all that’s left to the Arab population, and nobody can reasonably pretend that a viable nation can be constructed out of that. As for incorporating well-behaved Palestinians into Israel itself, the Israelis will never do that either since, unless something drastic happens to the Palestinian birth rate, there will likely be too many Arabs to allow Israel to ever confidently maintain its Jewish demographic majority.

Israel seems to have fallen under the spell of its extremist right wing, which has thought very clearly and hard about how to render the takeover of “Judea and Samaria” an
eventual fait accompli.   My suspicion is that in addition to many of them self-exiling, whatever Palestinians ultimately choose to remain will somehow be forcibly expelled en masse by that Israeli right wing a few decades from now as their government’s response to some sort of final spasm of Palestinian resistance.   “We were forced to do it!” will be the final Israeli self-justification, just as it was for us Americans as the reasoning for why we had to ultimately forcibly relocate and/or compartmentalize our Native American population.

Needless to say I don’t think this represents a morally optimal solution, but I think it will ultimately be a conclusive one that can never be reversed.

GreatConsequence7847

This is what fascism does. It has to seek out an enemy to justify its own existence. Unending war is the goal, but the consequences of it are unavoidable. Eventually the killing becomes too much, and one of two things happens. Either your economy crashes, or a bigger fish that actually cares about human rights steps in and puts an end to it.

Israel is a racist, fascist state. There's no getting around it, and that means that eventually the conflict it creates will bring about the inevitable. You can already see it with the colossal drop in GDP and mass flight of citizens, same thing happened with Rhodesia as an example. Eventually the US will be forced to pull its support exactly as happened with South Africa, and the end will come.

cole1114

Israel is actually a failed state. What is more,  there is no solution for this because zionisim is a racist, old ideology that doesn't belong to the future. 

The "solution" is for zionisim idelogy to be replaced with positive jewish nationalisim that see palestinans as equal human beings.

Given how stubborn each side is, I don't see a solution for this conflict.

Successful-Universe

TL;DR: “Change must come from within.”

As frustratingly vague and unsatisfying as this answer can feel, I see the wisdom in it. This conflict will end if and when neither side sees any value in continuing to fight it. If and when that day comes, will depend a lot on how the near future of the planet pans out. For all we know, some major events are about to happen that completely change the course of the human experience on planet earth, and that we could not have possibly foreseen. I’m thinking mostly of technological breakthroughs, ideological paradigm shifts that follow in the wake of major technological breakthroughs, and environmental catastrophes. But I wouldn’t rule out otherworldly intrusions either.

By way of comparison, around the turn of the millennium, China was facing ecological collapse from such high pollution levels. The Chinese didn’t want to be preached to by Western eco-activists. But they didn’t need to be. Eventually the problem got so bad, and technology and geopolitics shifted, such that a homegrown environmentalist movement organically took shape in China, that was 100% Chinese in its cultural sensibilities. Nowadays, China has horizons once again.

VelvetyDogLips

Israelis need an incentive to change. They don’t have one right now. That incentive is likely external. Israel is culturally, socially, and militarily linked to the West in ways that other countries with sanctions aren’t- Israel would likely have a more difficult time adjusting.

That said, as you say, BDS won’t be the trick- it would be states giving sanctions, and this won’t happen in the U.S. anytime soon. 

What BDS doesn't get, is that for Israel it's the difference between existing and having self determination for an entire people indigenous to the region and largely dispersed in part by the ancestors of those most vocally opposed to existencenand self determination, or not existing and having no rights to self determination; in contrast, for SA it was the difference between maintaining historic racial supremacy born of actual European settler colonialism for economic gain, vs equality with/for the indigenous people.

BDS worked in SA because apartheid was enforced for primarily economic reasons reminiscent of pre-civil war US southern states (white minority profiting off the labor of majority black population).  End apartheid and SA remains a sovereign nation with rich white still at the top of the social hierarchy, but now with, at least on paper, an equal opportunity for blacks to benefit in society as well.

Israel on the other hand is majority Jewish and BDS goals are literally an existential threat to not only that majority, but to the existence of Israel itself.

You cant economically pressure a nation into voluntarily ceasing to exist.

cloudedknife

Well as long as Israel refuses to apply international law. And as long as the west continues to back it unconditionally.

FreeBench

What?  Bc we as human beings should care about the human lives and that means we start with the truth, which may mean going against the propaganda training.

Lightlovezen

I read the title and immediately thought sea level rise due to global warming.

Ax_deimos

How can Israel change anything that stops those terror organisations from wanting to destroy Israel?

Big-Today6819

The answer to the conflict is to move all the Palestinians out of Gaza and into Egypt.

Lol yea its israel that needs to change. Not the bloodthirsty jihadists surrounding it in every direction. They can stay as perfect as they are.

GoldenGus42

It is always risky to predict geopolitical events, and to be either too optimistic or pessimistic based on such predictions. No one predicted how quickly the Communist bloc would collapse in 1991. No one predicted the blunder that was Saddam's invasion of Kuwait, the consequences of which turned Iraq from a regional power to a basket case for three decades. No one foresaw the rise of ISIS, or how quickly it would lose its hold on the territories it controlled once the surrounding parties got their shit together. And I certainly am astonished at how inept, incompetent and totally outclassed Hizbollah has proven in the past year (LMAO)

We always base our predictions on what we think we know of past events. Not that there currently is any reason for optimism when it comes to the Palestinian-Israeli side of things. But world events have a way of surprising us.

Kingston_Koin

For the love of all that is good and holy in this world:

1) Get a ceasefire.

2) Release all remaining hostages.

3) Two State Solution OR One State where everyone has equal rights.

It's literally 75+ years of war, terrorrism, occupation, blockade, apartheid and now genocide. WTF!!!

Sbeast

There will never be a solution ever because all three Abrahamic faiths (and perhaps others) have the prophecy of doomsday centered around that area. Temporary peace maybe but not permanent peace. This isn't a fault of religion but a fault of man.

In 70 years climate change will be the biggest factor in the sustainability of the state of Israel (and every other state in the region). No appeals to "make the desert bloom" israeli ingenuity nonsense will change what's coming to the region generally.

I don’t think the conflict can be solved as long as the Arabs continue treating Israel like an occupation. They need to accept Israel’s existence. Their leaders should start preaching about Israel being a legitimate Jewish country for the Jews who were expelled from every country they were in before. Today they teach - the Jews deserved to be expelled from every nation. They should teach about how the Arabs treated the Jews when Israel was founded. Today they teach that the Jews were treated well and then one day they started attacking the Arabs, and that the Arabs were the victims. They should start treating Israel with equal respect. 


People always lie and both-sides it. In reality - I wish the Arabs would treat the Jews like the Jews treat the Arabs. I’d have no problem with that. So first step - stop with the Neo Nazi type mentality.

PreviousPermission45

First of all, you are assuming that Israel alone has the power to stop the conflict, which I highly disagree with.

Other than that, for the first half of the 20th century the Germans and French were busy slaughtering each other, now they are peaceful, allied, and with open borders.

The Irish and Brits spend centuries fighting, now they are at peace and friendly with each other.

There are a lot more examples (Japan and Korea comes to mind), but you get the point. A solution is always possible, but right now I am not sure if either side's leadership even wants a permanent solution. That does not mean we should stop talking about it, and for each side to listen to the other side.

Commercial_Lie_7240

People tend to be reactionary.  A war is going to cause some strong reactions.  Trump’s Israel policy, Al Aqsa flood, and Israel’s response, were the stupidest ideas ever.  They hurt the cause of both Israelis and Palestinians.  It’s a stupid war.

Ultra-Nationalism is way less appealing when you’re not constantly under threat.  These people need a cigarette, bruh.

Worknonaffiliated

The solution is complex. The actual time for solving this conflict was 76 years ago, when Al Husseini embarked on a heroic mission to unify the locals against the forces of European invading murderers and child rapists. But that failed and any chance of an actual ideal moral solution failed with it. 

Today, the descendants of said European child killers are in charge of the land and they seem to be wanting to follow the evil agenda of their ancestors, maybe even hoping they can outdo them in terror and joy caused by suffering, while wanting to pretend to be good unlike their forefathers who were proudly evil. 

Anyways, we don’t have a moral responsibility to solve this conflict at all. Our only responsibility is to avoid supporting the evildoers. This means ceasing to support them financially and encouraging others to do similar.

It’s funny how Zionists think they’re the side of practicality when Zionists say let’s pretend we’re at the negotiating table with the UN and pro Pals say just avoid Starbucks and McDonalds.

Early-Possibility367

Legalize cannabis in the region. It will solve much of the problem.

venom9110

It’ll go on forever. Whatever solution is put in place, it will be forced upon both parties, and neither will be happy. The Palestinians want it all and right of return, some are happy with 67 Arab peace plan but, let’s be honest, they’ll take that and probably keep going for the lot. Likewise some Israelis would be happy with a 2 state solution, others will cry and push for every inch of the West Bank and Gaza.

Wombats_poo_cubes

The permanent solution is hopefully in progress: annexation of territory and removal of Iran's terror regimes. The effects of the solution may manifest in 70 years though, when the descendants of Gaza and WB are Israeli Arabs with full Israeli rights because the region is deradicalized by then.

philetofsoul

That was a good video, I had someone ask me what I felt about the situation, I told them I didn’t know enough to comment on it

Motor-Atmosphere9590

This [video](https://youtu.be/iRYZjOuUnlU?si=pBwGsnb6RUE1iAfU) will provide a brief idea of the conflict.

This video is an excellent explainer of how Hamas works
https://youtu.be/7NX-cdaA3VE?si=MQd1cFvC1xuRrUIo

sammyf555

Hamas is a terrorist organization, supported by Iran and its allies, which is trying to destroy Israel. 

There are also others, who, while not supporting Hamas or Iran, consider Israel as a wholly illegitimate state, partially illegitimate, expect Israel to withdraw from all "occupied territories", give up on Jerusalem, let million of Palestinian refugees in or something similar, and until Israel acceedes to these demands, will defend pretty much any acts of aggression against it.

Israel is simply trying to survive and as much as possible guarantee normal life to its citizens, Jews and Arabs.

knign

All you had to do was search here on Reddit dummy

njconnect

There is no Israeli Palestinian conflict for dummies which is part of the reason it has yet to be solved.

CreativeRealmsMC

Basically Jews were promised land by the British.

UN gave it to them in 1948 with a plan. A two state solution. Israel said yes, Arabs said no and attacked and lost. Yes, you lose land when you attack another country and lose.

Ever since then to this day the prideful Arabs keep attacking Israel. 

Jews lost that land thousands of years ago and no one cares, they say they should get over it that was long ago. Now the Palestinians lost that land. So if Israel holds on to the land for many centuries will it eventually get to the point where Palestine should stfu about it? “Yeah you lost it in 1948, hundreds of hundreds of years ago, get over it”.

TopG__10

I dont think this is just your view. This is a well known fact Hezbollah even admitted themselves

manboobsonfire

Hezbollah lost so badly that I agree and think it was a failure.  However when considering similar questions I think a certain line of thinking you haven’t yet mentioned should be in play:

Just say al-qaida and the Taliban were destroyed after 9-11.    

Did Al Qaida fail or succeed?  The United States and the world is in a very different position in the world because of 9-11.  A much worse one imo and it was hard to see how bad it was for decades.

When you’re massively disempowered and you’re a martyrdom-centric religiously-driven organization whose goal is destruction of a much larger state, destruction of your organization should not count as an automatic overall failure. 

However, it is early in the game.  We don’t really know what making the war into an expanded regional conflict rather than it being limited to Gaza has done with regard to Israel/US relationship with Arab neighbors in the long term.

Pheniquit

An argument could be made that regardless of outcome they had to engage so as to remain consistent with their point of existing in the first place.

Spida81

2.5 billion dollars in damages doesn’t seem like a total failure

FerdinandTheGiant

Not sure changing your view is likely as it seems to be a factual point of view. Hezbollah has been decimated, their leadership eradicated, and many of their fighters have fled, have been killed, injured, or left unpaid/unmotivated.

thatshirtman

For point 12 I'd point out that Hezbollah never had a monopoly on Lebanese politics. A more accurate representation would be that they held the politics hostage. (for example, most Lebanese people were unhappy about the Beirut explosion's investigation being silenced and knew who silenced it and why)

mini_macho_

Israel bated them into war they started the hostilities against them. I’m not sure they wanted to go to war over Gaza.

Direct_Crew_9949

Hezbollah was Israel's Schrodinger's opposition.

Israel didn't know if Hezbollah were formidable or a "paper tiger," so they always played it safe and assumed they were formidable.

Hezbollah's mistake was forcing Israel's hand, opening the box, and showing Israel what they hoped was true.

That's a good assessment of the current situation. I think most informed people share this view. They are a shell of what they once were, since they lost Nasrallah, the group has been almost unheard of.

ertybotts

noewon101

Everyone knows this except Hezbollah supporters lol

Standard_Ad7704

I found that exploding pager thing hilarious. That op will be studied for years about how to pull off such a high impact attack.

RepresentativeOk5968

You forgot Syria. They hate Hezbollah too.

josemontana17

One massive change is Syria. Irans been funding its proxies and sending resources through going through there . But now that’s basically gone. They have less supplies and resources now

AmazingAd5517

You forgot to mention their ability to claim victory. The bigger the lose the larger the victory claim will be

Accurate_Return_5521

No bro Israel is done bro just trust me bro. Any day bro any dayyyyy

Dry_Animator_4818

I agree and am very happy about the short and medium-term consequences. However, I would take some exception with point 13 as I think it’s easy to read this and misunderstand, and think that the government was supportive of Hezbollah’s terrorism/attacks in response to Gaza, or to think that the various factions were ever unified in their approval of Hezbollah dominance.

Lebanon is essentially under a feudal system.  The government, from it’s founding, is weak and incoherent to the point that it does not have much in the way of a unified will, but if it does, it’s willingness to approve of Hezbollah’s military actions against Israel since the end of civil war seemed overwhelmingly limited to what they view as defense of border regions.  The government is cowed into largely submitting to Hezbollah control on a huge range of matters, but it wasn’t what would be fairly described as a puppet as Hezbollah has always been forced to politically maneuver to fight for more power. The threat of major conflict from the beginning of any Hezbollah escalation seemed to prompt the various factions to disapprove - the tightest allies seemed to demur and just dodge the question and replace an answer with criticism of Israel’s behavior.

JosephJohnPEEPS

You have to consider what the alternative is. If Lebanon had diplomatic only responses, what would their state be? You can look at Jordan, Turkey and Egypt as examples of neighboring countries who went that route. All provide a support mechanism for the occupation by oppressing their own people from protesting, blocking aid, blocking news. There is a strong degree of oppression that is needed. Free elections are out of the question, as popular candidates support Palestinians. News has to be censored and tailored to show symbolic solidarity but not actual opposition. You wouldn't want to actually live in these countries. They end up functioning as satellite states of Israel.


Lebanon also has a political and financial crisis that has destabilized it for decades. 


Additionally, there is a history of Israeli interference in Lebanon prior to Hezbollah. One of the founding reasons of Hezbollah was Israel's arming and support of the Christian terror groups(Michelle Aoun).


The situation now is a a logical outcome of colonial adventures.

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If we’re factoring in with what’s happening now imo I’d say quite a few things definitely need to change. I’ll start on the Israel side. 
1. Netanyahu need to go. This asshole and the government officials who are his Allies has been part of the reason why there’s been little progress to peace for quiet a while. https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/amp/ 
2. Settlers need to leave the West Bank. The settlers within the West Bank have been absolutely horrible to the Palestinians living there before the Hamas terror attack on 10/7. And Netanyahu completely supported the settlers going onto what’s considered Palestinian land for years.

Now for Palestine.

1. HAMAS. Do I need to say it? These fundamentalists assholes need to be completely destroyed. They are the other key reason why there’s little to no peace. Using civilians as shields, killing anyone who isn’t religious, wanting to kill every single Jewish person, the list goes on.
2. The radicalism. Quite a few Palestinians are quite anti semitic. Even the supposedly “moderate” PLO government is anti semitic with the President Abbas literally having a phd in holocaust denial  https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/mahmoud-abbas-still-a-holocaust-denier . And not to mention the martyr fund to kill Jews(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_Authority_Martyrs_Fund ). There’s a reason why so many of their neighbors are refusing to allow Palestinian refugees in(Lebanon insurrection in the 70s, causing trouble to Egypt, trying to kill the Jordan king). Those things need to stop. 

My solution: I have no idea. Politics especially in the Middle East is complicated. What I do know however is this conflict is super complicated and neither side is free of blame. So it’s gonna require both sides to kick the extremists to the curb. Which I sadly don’t see happening for quite a while. I definitely feel bad for the citizens caught in the crossfire.

Peace can’t happen until 2 major things happen. 

1. Hamas needs to be disarmed and ended since it is a state sponsored terrorist group.
2. Both sides need to admit they both have the right to exist and that they must share the region. 

After those two things happen a two state solution can be negotiated in good faith.

GrayBox1313

To look at it from a purely objective level, you won't get lasting peace until Palestinians have a functioning economy. Right now you've got 4.5 million Palestinians with a GDP of $10B, &gt;30% unemployment and exports of $720M. Palestinians have minimal access to higher education, no real industrialization and no real prospects for growth.

It really doesn't matter if you blame Israel, Hamas, Iran or the US for this state of affairs. Unless and until a child growing up in Palestine has access to a better future than their parents we're going to see this conflict continue.

The average Palestinian doesn't want death to Israel or martyrdom. They want what everyone else wants - a job and home so they can raise a family and live their life.

Absence of war is only the first step. You also need a stable government, reliable access to electricity and drinking water, education and economic development. Once the current crisis is over, the international community needs to move in this direction. Otherwise we're just going to have the same debate in another ten years.

Zombie_John_Strachan

My two cents based on what I know so far:

**Short-term**: International agreement to dismantling Hamas while protecting Gaza civilians through strict war strategy oversight of Israel, as well as global provision of humanitarian aid and basic services. Israel may need tangible accountability measures to agree to this, but if the US joined these international efforts, I think it could happen.

**Long-term:** After Hamas is dismantled, international community occupies Gaza together temporarily, while working together to develop a new leadership system with representatives from the Gaza strip. Criteria for representative leadership would be (a) support from the majority of Gazans and (b) a commitment to a peaceful two-state solution. U.S. and global community ceases aid to Israel until the leadership of Israel also agrees to a two-state solution. U.N. moderates negotiations.

**Long-Long term:** A penpal/video chat friendship program to get the children in Palestine and Israel talking to each other. It's very easy to demonize an entire people when you have no exposure to them and live in an echo chamber of your own narrative. Exposure to the humanity of others and their stories improves interest in peace.

koolaid-girl-40

1. One side wipes out the other 

2. Two state solution. And I mean a legit two state solution where Palestinians have a good shot at prosperity and Gaza is connected to the world at large (and the West Bank especially)


I don’t see a one secular state solution working. Way too much bad blood at this point.

Dizzy-Resolution-511

I can tell you one way it's *not* going to end: a secular, democratic Palestine made up of all the land from the former Mandatory Palestine. Why? Because neither side actually wants it. Polls have shown that Palestinians would prefer to live under Islamic law where Muslims have a higher position than non-Muslims do, where religion plays a major role in everyday life and politics, so they wouldn't agree to it. Israelis won't agree to this for obvious reasons. Besides, it takes a special kind of naivete to think something like this would be possible in this region. Just look at some of the surrounding countries. Can any of them be called secular, democratic states? But we're supposed to believe Palestine would be the exception? This fantasy is only entertained by Western idealists - i.e. people with no skin in the game. It's time to stop taking it seriously.

In any case, there really is no solution to this that doesn't involve a lot more bloodshed. That has been the story of the Middle East for the last century, and [that will be the story of the Middle East forever](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN4mnVLP0rU)

AntarcticScaleWorm

Seeing the slogans on the pro-Palestine banners, and watching a bunch of videos from the Ask project, it seems the two state solution is over. This is kind of shocking to me as I always thought this was the only reasonable off ramp.  Palestinians don't seem to want it. That just means war.

Phssthp0kThePak

Me default reaction is to say that you could nuke the whole area and the survivors would fight over the glass.  
  
Look, this is a hatred that runs deeper and longer than most countries have existed. It’s not even a space where you could remove one population from the other with a land grant. It’s the land itself that they’re willing to die for. Until you can convince one side to quit the land, there won’t be peace. Ever. We’re just going to see this generation after generation.

Alfred_The_Sartan

Stop giving money to the middle-east, don't buy oil from the middle-east, and cut all funding and support to the middle-east. If they don't have our money, they don't have the means to do anything.

Hamas unconditionally surrendering, and freeing all the hostages. Then going away, and never returning would be a great solution and would work full proof.

STC1989

Am immediate commitment from Hamas for no more attacks (and also Hezbollah) and a recognition that neither side will get everything they want.

Netanyahu going and a more moderate Israeli government.

And, Iran staying out of it.

I_am_Reddit_Tom

Hamas needs to be destroyed like the Nazis. No if ands or buts, they are a terrorist organization that has only one goal, kill as many Jews as possible. The Palestinians need a good strong leader willing to work with Israel and Israel needs to work with them. Palestine needs to be recognized and both deserve to live in peace. The UN needs yo broker a deal that is satisfactory to both sides.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas escalated, with recent Israeli airstrikes causing significant casualties in Gaza. Humanitarian conditions remain dire amid calls for a ceasefire.

Israel-Hamas Conflict Escalation in Gaza

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